China talks a big game, but are they prepared for a full-scale war with the United States?
The short answer is no.
When China built the 3 Gorges Dam, they also created a strategic military weakness that would devastate the nation in the best of times, and would be a crippling death blow in a time of war.
So what effect would the destruction of the 3 Gorges Dam be?
Pretty catastrophic. The flooding alone would kill hundreds of millions, and the economic loss would be in the billions if not trillions.
China would be seriously hurt. Three Gorges Dam Facts The reservoir contains 9.4 cubic miles of water. Most of which would go crashing down the original river valley, whose population has increased now that the flooding is not as severe (although the flooding in 2010 [2 years after the dam opened] was equally severe to anything seen before the dam was started).
And they would also have to figure out how to replace all the hydro-electric power that they can no longer produce. Note that the published price to complete the dam was $24 billion USD. But they expect the dam to pay them back within 10 years, so it is expected to produce over $2 billion USD of electricity per year.
It is designed to withstand a major earthquake, but there are 2 major faults near the dam (Jiuwanxi and Zigui-Badong). There have been the usual impoundment-induced earthquakes, but they have fallen off over the years. But there is still concern that the dam may trigger one of the local faults, and cause a huge calamity in the Yangtze river valley.
If the Three Gorges Dam is completely collapsed, more than 10 billion cubic meters of reservoir water will be released in a short time, and the coast between the dam site and Shashi City will be directly impacted by flood waves, resulting in serious disaster losses. The Gezhouba Dam water conservancy project will be severely damaged, and Yichang is flooded in the area below the railway line, and the embankment of Zhicheng, the upper and lower Dizhou and the Jing Jiang flood areas will be flooded by the embankment of the West Bank of the West.
The maximum flow rate of the dam break peak will reach 2 million, 370 thousand cubic meters per second. The flood peak will reach the Gezhouba Dam water control hub at 100 km per hour. The flood peak will still reach 310 thousand cubic meters per second, the flood damages the Gezhouba Dam dam and enters the city of Yichang. The flow rate in the Yichang city is still still. With 65 kilometers per hour and 4 to 5 hours after dam break, the water level of Yichang will reach 64 to 71 meters above sea level.
In 1998, the maximum flow of flood in the Yangtze River was 60 thousand cubic meters per second, and the flood peak presented here was 37 times that of its flood peak, and the speed of the flood peak was 100 kilometers per hour, the same as those on the freeway. Such a large volume of traffic, at such a high speed, is far more destructive than a few bombs that hypothetically destroyed the Three Gorges dam.
That is, the Gezhouba Dam water control project must be washed away under such a flow and speed. The average elevation of Yichang is less than 50 meters above sea level. When the flood level reaches 64-71 meters above sea level, Yichang city is 20 meters below water. Residents of Yichang had little chance to escape after the Three Gorges Dam burst because the flood peak reached Yichang half an hour after the dam burst. Only one city in Yichang will lose 500 thousand of its staff.
The external condition of dam break simulation is not selected at the most unfavorable moment, nor is it selected at a relatively unfavorable moment, but is deliberately selected under favorable conditions. The total reservoir capacity of the Three Gorges Reservoir is 39.3 billion cubic meters.
When there are signs of war, the reservoir will discharge water for seven days to the safe water level. There is only 10 billion cubic meters of water in the reservoir. The natural flow rate of dam break is 60 thousand cubic meters per second, and the maximum discharge volume of dam break flood peak will reach 2 million 370 thousand cubic meters per second. The largest flood flow in the Yangtze River is 110 thousand cubic meters per second (1870), which is third in the world.
The maximum flood flow of the former Soviet Lena river is, 90 thousand cubic meters per second (1967). The maximum flood flow of the Brazil AMA river is 370 thousand cubic meters (1953), and the flow of the Three Gorges dam break is 2. 370 thousand cubic meters per second is not an order of magnitude. The simulation model has not yet told people what is the concept of the 39 billion 300 million cubic meters of water in the Three Gorges reservoir when the water is filled and the natural water flow is 60 thousand cubic meters per second. What kind of catastrophe will the Yellow River suffer in a very short period of time?
Not only Yichang can not hold, Shashi can not hold, Jianghan plain can not hold, Wuhan can not hold, Beijing and Guangzhou, the Beijing Kowloon Railway also can not hold, the scope of the flood has been to Nanjing. In 1986, the Sichuan provincial CPPCC investigation group pointed out in the report that “once the war broke out, the Three Gorges dam must be the primary goal. If the dam was destroyed, the big cities in the middle and lower reaches of the dam were displaced, the consequences would be unimaginable.”
To put it simply, it is an unstoppable destruction of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River than the flood of tens of times of the flood of 98 years. Hong Feng arrives in Wuhan in 10 hours and in 1 days to Nanjing. Tens of tens of tens of meters of flood washed across building buildings, it is hard to imagine that people can escape from the sky. I’m afraid it’s hard to count how many people are drowning.
The Yangtze River Valley is the center of China’s elite gravity, with 38% water, 25% arable land, 40% grain, 33% cotton, 66% freshwater fish, and 350 million people. Do you understand this effect?
From a military point of view, the downstream area of the Three Gorges dam is China’s strategic power.
According to the study of Yang Lang, a military commentator, the Three Gorges project is in a very critical and very sensitive position in the whole of China’s national defense. Once the dam breaks, both space and time will have a significant radiation impact on the whole national defense, and the effect of the disaster field is serious.
In the lower reaches of the Three Gorges Dam, the Central Plains of the Three Gorges have always been the battleground of the army, and now it is the main military place for China. There are forty-five percent of the Chinese army group, twenty percent of the armored divisions, thirty-eight percent of the infantry divisions, and one hundred percent of the airborne divisions.
It is the strategic reserve force of China and the strategic mobile force of China. The elite is where it is. The strategic maneuvering force and reserve force were very passive by the huge dam failure of the Three Gorges dam.
If the strategic mobile force is consumed by dam break floods, the result is very serious.
James E Windsor, Overpasses News Desk
December 2nd, 2018